Thursday, September 28, 2006

Collective Wisdom of Crowds

James Surowiecki makes a compelling point in his book the Wisdom of Crowds.....the rather eerie predictive accuracy of crowds which puts to shame even the best of experts. The theory that mobs and crowds are crazy at the worst and dumb at the best has come a long way and James makes a strong argument about that. A rather interesting point about the whole thing is that HSX ( Hollywood Stock Exchange ) can make predictions about new movie box office results with a pretty good accuracy and are actually selling their data to Hollywood people.

A caveat however is that there are 3 things which are required in the composition of the crowd to be successful.....more on that later.

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